Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected in central Kansas this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Kansas in a level 4, or moderate risk area, generally east of a line from Cunningham to St. John to Ellsworth. A level 3 or enhanced risk exists west of that line and east of a Kinsley-Larned-hoisington line.
The National Weather Service says storms are expected to initiate around 3 PM as a cold front advances into the area. Storms will spread southward through the region through the remainder of the night.
The only uncertainty at this point involves how the storms will actually develop. The current thinking is storms will rapidly cluster across central Kansas, which would reduce the risk of very large hail and tornadoes. However if any storms would remain discrete for a longer duration, that risk would increase. This mode would be more likely for south central Kansas.
Some parts of central Kansas saw very heavy rainfall last night. Doppler radar estimates between 3-6 inches of rain fell in an area from far northwest Pawnee County across parts of Rush, Barton, Ellsworth, Russel and Lincoln counties, which are in a flood warning until noon today.
Ad Astra News will be monitoring the situation through the afternoon and evening.
